02Macro, politics & other
BRMacro, politics & other
Final Datafolha before the runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro 47%, Lula 46%, a statistical tie
Datafolha's poll, released on the evening of 22 Oct with fieldwork from 20 to 22 Oct, has Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) on 47% and Lula (PT) on 46% of total votes, with 5% blank or null and 2% undecided. In valid votes the two are tied at 50%; a week earlier Flávio led 51–49. The poll was commissioned by Globo and Folha, has a ±2 pp margin and is registered with the TSE as BR-09709/2026.
Why it matters for LIDE membersWith the 25 Oct runoff too close to call, BRL, rates and Brazilian equities are likely to be volatile around the result.
CHMacro, politics & other
SNB summary: heightened readiness to intervene in FX 'no longer necessary'; policy rate stays at 0%
The SNB's summary of its September deliberations, published on 22 Oct, says the franc has weakened about 3% in trade-weighted terms since June, easing monetary conditions, so heightened readiness to intervene is no longer needed, although the SNB remains willing to act as necessary. The 2026 GDP forecast was raised to 1.5–2.0%, and inflation is seen staying within the price-stability range. Risks named include the Middle East and energy prices, trade tensions, high tech valuations and AI's labour-market effects.
Why it matters for LIDE membersRates on hold at 0% and less defence of the franc shape CHF funding costs and CHF/BRL hedging decisions.
BRMacro, politics & other
Ibovespa falls 1.15% and the dollar rises to R$5.04 ahead of the runoff
On 22 Oct the Ibovespa closed down 1.15% at 204,120 points, and the spot dollar rose 0.23% to about R$5.039. Times Brasil attributes the move to caution before the runoff, Iran-related tension and high oil, doubts about big tech's AI spending, and profit-taking.
Why it matters for LIDE membersRising risk premia on Brazilian assets matter for the timing of BRL/CHF conversions and Brazil allocations.
CHMacro, politics & otherPrivate Market
Nestlé speeds up: Q3 organic growth of 4.0% and volumes up 2.8%, beating forecasts; 2026 guidance confirmed
Nestlé reported nine-month sales of CHF 65.87bn, broadly flat in francs, with 3.7% organic growth. In Q3, organic growth was 4.0% and real internal growth 2.8%, above analyst expectations of 3.5% and 1.7%. The group confirmed 2026 guidance of 3–4% organic growth; the coverage reviewed gives no Brazil or Latin America figure.
Why it matters for LIDE membersNestlé is a major Swiss employer and investor in Brazil, so its volume recovery is a read-through for consumer demand in the corridor.
CHMacro, politics & other
Roche nine-month sales reach CHF 46.5bn; Q3 up 8% in CHF; guidance confirmed
Roche reported nine-month sales of CHF 46.5bn: Pharma CHF 36.2bn (+7% at constant exchange rates) and Diagnostics CHF 10.3bn (+4% CER). Q3 sales rose 8% in francs and 7% at CER. Full-year 2026 guidance of mid-single-digit sales growth and high-single-digit core EPS growth was confirmed.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA bellwether for Swiss pharma's resilience under US tariff and currency pressure.
05Private banking & wealth management
BRPrivate banking & wealth management
Faria Lima lender Grupo Euro17 files for judicial recovery with R$1.72bn of liabilities, mostly retail debentures
Euro17, a São Paulo receivables and consumer-credit group, filed for judicial recovery for eight companies, including Euro Securitizadora. Of R$1.72bn in declared liabilities, R$1.28bn is private debentures sold to about 4,000 individual investors, out of 5,034 creditors. The group blames rising defaults and contagion from the Banco Master case.
Why it matters for LIDE membersThe Banco Master fallout is spreading into private credit sold to wealthy individuals, raising the bar for due diligence on high-yield Brazilian private paper.
CHPrivate banking & wealth managementTaxes & wealth planningPrivate Market
AllianzGI builds a team to cover Swiss single family offices, focused on private markets
Allianz Global Investors has set up dedicated coverage of Swiss single family offices under Björn Jesch, formerly of DWS. According to a 2026 SFOA study, Swiss SFOs hold about CHF 785bn. The offer centres on infrastructure, private credit, secondaries, co-investments and portfolio-structuring advice; Jesch expects the build-up to take at least two years.
Why it matters for LIDE membersGlobal managers are competing for Swiss family-office capital, which opens co-investment access and an opening for Brazilian sponsors seeking Swiss LPs.
CHPrivate banking & wealth managementPrivate MarketBroker research opinion – ZKB via finews
ZKB: Partners Group sell-off overdone; Overweight on Julius Baer and EFG, Underweight on Vontobel
Zürcher Kantonalbank's research calls the fall in Partners Group shares, after news of redemption limits and slower growth in evergreen funds, exaggerated, and rates the stock Overweight. It is also Overweight on Julius Baer, citing a new phase after the FINMA investigation closed, and on EFG; Underweight on Vontobel on asset-management outflows; and Neutral on UBS because of the proposed capital rules.
Why it matters for LIDE membersLiquidity limits in private-markets evergreen funds directly affect wealthy clients' allocations.
06Private Market
BRPrivate MarketAI & Infrastructure
Tractian raises US$130m Series D at a US$1.4bn valuation, becoming Brazil's newest AI unicorn
Brazilian-founded industrial AI company Tractian closed a US$130m Series D at a US$1.4bn valuation, co-led by Sapphire Ventures and M&G's growth arm Catalyst, with N47, General Catalyst, Bosch Ventures, Monashees, Endeavor Catalyst and Y Combinator. The money funds 'physical AI' R&D and expansion into manufacturers, data-centre operators, defence and utilities. Annualised revenue passed US$100m in September 2026, about half from outside Brazil, and a new office in Poland opens a European front.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA Brazilian AI scale-up backed by European corporate and growth capital and expanding into Europe is a natural candidate for Swiss industrial and investor introductions.
BRPrivate Market
Raízen prepares a capital increase of at least R$3.5bn; Cosan likely to be diluted
Raízen plans to issue at least 14bn new shares at R$0.25, raising at least R$3.5bn, and Shell has proposed contributing R$3.5bn. Cosan holds 44% and has not committed to follow, so its stake is expected to be diluted; Rubens Ometto's family office Aguassanta may take part, and creditors may convert claims under the extrajudicial recovery plan covering about R$65bn of debt. The EGM is on 30 Oct and the board decides on 5 Nov.
Why it matters for LIDE membersControl of a leading Brazilian energy-transition and agribusiness platform is shifting, and the creditor-to-equity structure is a template for distressed-asset investors.
CHPrivate MarketAI & Infrastructure
Zurich physical-AI start-up Enact Intelligence emerges from stealth with a US$30m pre-seed
Enact Intelligence, founded in Zurich in March 2026 by former 1X humanoid software lead Manuel Yves Galliker, raised US$30m in one of Europe's largest pre-seed rounds, led by redalpine, Notion Capital and firstminute capital, with Arthur Mensch and Yann LeCun as angels. The 12-person company builds robots that sense force and touch and is in talks with European manufacturing, infrastructure, retail and food-processing groups.
Why it matters for LIDE membersIt confirms Zurich as a magnet for robotics and frontier-AI capital, and a possible automation partner pool for Brazilian industrials.
BRPrivate Market
At the 47th CBPP, Brazilian pension funds are urged to invest in tourism infrastructure
At Abrapp's 47th CBPP in São Paulo, a panel with Maraey, BID Invest and Santander Brasil made the case for pension-fund (EFPC) investment in sustainable tourism, citing projected sector revenue of about R$300bn in 2026. No commitments were announced; Santander said capital is available and bankable projects are lacking.
Why it matters for LIDE membersInstitutional money is looking beyond fixed income into real assets, a possible co-investment angle for Swiss hospitality investors.
07Crypto & digital assets
BRCrypto & digital assetsMacro, politics & other
Crypto prediction markets give Flávio Bolsonaro about 80% odds despite a statistical tie in the polls
Polymarket prices the runoff at 78% for Flávio Bolsonaro and Kalshi at 79%, while polls show a statistical tie. In April 2026 the Finance Ministry's Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas classed both platforms as irregular betting houses and they are blocked in Brazil, but Brazilians keep trading election contracts via VPNs.
Why it matters for LIDE membersOffshore crypto odds have become a market sentiment signal, but Brazilian residents trading on them face legal exposure.
BRCrypto & digital assets
Bitcoin falls below US$82,000 on AI doubts and China weakness, even as spot ETFs take in US$528m
Bitcoin dropped about 2.6% on 22 Oct, below US$82,000, as risk aversion spread from Chinese equities and AI-linked tech stocks. Spot bitcoin ETFs drew US$528m in the prior session, taking three-day inflows above US$1bn. The move comes days after FINMA approved Switzerland's first retail spot bitcoin ETF and ahead of Brazil's 30 Oct crypto-licence deadline.
Why it matters for LIDE membersInstitutional flows persist through volatility, relevant as regulated crypto products launch in both Switzerland and Brazil.
08AI & Infrastructure
CHAI & InfrastructureFintechUniversity spin-offs & innovation labs
Ex-UBS chief economist Klaus Wellershoff launches AI investment platform Turiq with ETH Zurich students
Turiq AG, co-founded by Klaus Wellershoff, offers financial institutions an AI platform that processes market information, prepares investment decisions and supports client communication, running in the client's own cloud without training on client data. It grew out of a hackathon at the Swiss AI Weeks in St. Gallen in 2025, is run by two ETH Zurich computer-science students, and already has its first external clients. No funding was disclosed.
Why it matters for LIDE membersIt shows how Swiss wealth managers are adopting sovereign, in-house AI for investment work.
BRAI & InfrastructureTaxes & wealth planningIn-window item is an opinion piece; status rests on 15–19 Oct reports – TeleSíntese
Redata data-centre regime still awaits its implementing decree as industry pressure grows
Lei 15.504/2026, which created the Redata tax regime for data centres, was enacted on 15 September, but the decree setting eligibility and energy criteria has not been published. On 15 Oct nine parliamentary fronts and 32 associations asked Lula for it urgently, and the association ABDC says projects are stalled and states are holding back ICMS relief. An in-window opinion piece cites an IDC/Brasscom projection of R$736.6bn of AI investment in 2026–2029.
Why it matters for LIDE membersUntil the decree is out, Brazilian data-centre projects carry timing and eligibility risk for foreign infrastructure capital.
CHAI & Infrastructure
Deloitte: generative AI cannot offset Switzerland's coming retirement wave
A Deloitte Switzerland analysis of 279 occupations finds about 900,000 workers, roughly 20% of the workforce, will reach retirement age within ten years, with the worst shortages in care, crafts, transport and education, where AI automation potential is low. ICT roles face the highest AI transformation potential, and registered ICT unemployment rose from 6,958 to 7,186 between January and June 2026.
Why it matters for LIDE membersCompanies with Swiss operations should plan for persistent skilled-labour shortages despite AI.
CHAI & Infrastructure
Swiss Federal Audit Office: federal Microsoft 365 backup falls short because its console is hosted in the US
The Swiss Federal Audit Office (EFK) rated security of the federal administration's Microsoft 365 use as adequate for its current restricted scope, but said data backup is not at the required level because the backup console is hosted in the US. It recommends a regularly tested local backup and tighter configuration and review cycles.
Why it matters for LIDE membersData sovereignty is now a procurement criterion in Bern, favouring Swiss-hosted cloud and data-centre providers.
10University spin-offs & innovation labs
CHUniversity spin-offs & innovation labsPrivate Market
Proton, Sonar and FONGIT commit CHF 300,000 to launch Geneva Student Entrepreneurs
A new student-run club, Geneva Student Entrepreneurs, launched with CHF 300,000 from the Proton Foundation, Sonar and incubator FONGIT, backed by UNIGE and the State of Geneva. Proton CEO Andy Yen and Sonar chairman Olivier Gaudin sit on its board; it will be based at UNIGE with a hacker space.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA founder-funded talent pipeline in Romandy that could partner on events with young founders.
CHUniversity spin-offs & innovation labsPrivate Market
Geneva's FIF backs four academic deep-tech projects with CHF 300,000
The Fondation pour l'Innovation et la Finance awarded CHF 100,000 each to dEEGtal (AI-based EEG analysis for epilepsy, from HUG research) and UNIGE spin-off S-SENTIA (3D-vision sensing chip), and CHF 50,000 grants each to Pixels Métallurgiques (laser metal decoration for watchmaking) and EPFL spin-off Juturna Bio (epigenetic therapy for brain ageing). The next deadline is 4 Nov.
Why it matters for LIDE membersEarly-stage deal flow in medtech, sensors and watchmaking tech for family offices active in Swiss seed.