02Macro, politics & other
BRMacro, politics & other
Lula re-elected with about 51.8% in the runoff; Flávio Bolsonaro refuses to recognise the result and will seek annulment
With 99.9% of ballots counted, Electoral Court figures give Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) 51.77% of valid votes against 48.23% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL); other outlets report 51.75–51.79%. Lula had trailed by about two points in the 4 Oct first round, and SRF notes it is the first time since 1989 that a first-round runner-up has won. Flávio Bolsonaro said it is 'impossible to recognise' the result and that his campaign will ask the TSE to annul the election, citing STF Justice Cristiano Zanin's decision to extend voting to 19:00; his other allegations are unproven. In Congress, PL holds 121 of 513 deputies and 28 of 81 senators.
Why it matters for LIDE membersLula's fourth term sets Brazil's policy direction to 2030, and a formal challenge to the result adds short-term political and institutional risk for corridor investors.
BRMacro, politics & otherPrivate Market
Real futures fall about 10% overnight and Brazil ETFs slump abroad, pointing to a heavy sell-off at Monday's open
On Sunday night the CME November real contract fell about 10–11%, implying roughly R$5.50–5.60 per US dollar against a Friday spot close of about R$4.99. The Tokyo-listed NEXT Funds Ibovespa ETF fell 11–16% and the US-listed EWZ dropped almost 20% after hours; these are thin offshore indicators, as B3 had not yet opened. Monte Bravo projected an 11% first-hour fall in the Ibovespa, Cultura Capital sees more than 5% with a risk of circuit breakers, and Bradesco BBI cut Brazil to neutral.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA double-digit move in BRL changes the CHF value of Brazilian assets and the cost of dollar or franc funding, so hedging and timing decisions are on the table today.
04Taxes & wealth planning
BRTaxes & wealth planningMacro, politics & other
Lula's fourth term: gradual fiscal path, more progressive income tax, and Congress as the constraint
Lula has promised to keep the fiscal framework and reach a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP by 2030, with gross debt near 83% of GDP; campaign measures carry an estimated fiscal cost of R$74.6bn. On tax he has called for a more progressive income tax and a review of sector tax benefits, without detail on dividends or wealth, while the CBS stage of the consumption-tax reform starts in 2027. A Brazil Journal editorial (opinion) argues the government has 'zero room to manoeuvre' and expects only a shallow fiscal adjustment.
Why it matters for LIDE membersFamilies with Brazilian tax residency or Brazilian-source income should expect more pressure on high incomes, which bears on residency, holding-structure and succession planning in Switzerland.
BRTaxes & wealth planning
CBS countdown: TCU must send the 2027 rate calculation to the Senate by 30 Oct, and the Senate must set the rate by 15 Dec
The federal CBS replaces PIS and Cofins on 1 Jan 2027, and IPI falls to zero for most products. The TCU has until 30 Oct to send its reference-rate calculation; if the Senate misses its 15 Dec deadline, the TCU figure applies provisionally. The combined CBS and IBS reference ceiling is 26.5%, tax-tech firm ROIT estimates the 2027 CBS rate at about 9.43%, and São Paulo's Sefaz holds that IBS and CBS must be included in the ICMS base from 2027.
Why it matters for LIDE membersSwiss companies operating in Brazil need to reprice contracts and rework tax-credit models for 2027 within weeks.
05Private banking & wealth management
CHPrivate banking & wealth management
UBS capital week: bank staff union warns up to 12,000 Swiss jobs are at risk as the National Council committee meets
The Swiss Bank Employees Association (SBPV) has written to the National Council's economic committee (WAK-N), which meets on 26–27 Oct, warning that 10,000 to 12,000 of UBS's roughly 34,000 Swiss jobs could be at risk if the bank relocates or is sold. The committee is weighing the Council of States' proposal that foreign subsidiaries be backed 90% by CET1 capital, up from 45%, which UBS estimates would require about US$16bn more capital. According to Reuters sources, UBS has contingency plans including a headquarters move; it reports Q3 results on 28 Oct.
Why it matters for LIDE membersWhere UBS ends up based and how much capital it must hold will shape Swiss private-banking capacity and counterparty choices for Brazilian clients booked in Switzerland.
BRPrivate banking & wealth managementTaxes & wealth planning
Rio Bravo grows fiduciary services and expects tax changes to push wealthy families toward FII structures
Rio Bravo, with about R$13.5bn under management, has gathered R$1.1bn in new fiduciary assets in 2026 and expects a further R$430m by year-end from consolidating JPP's real-estate credit funds. It links future demand to the new minimum income tax on incomes above R$600k a year (up to an extra 10% above R$1.2m), since FII distributions to individuals remain exempt. It sees R$40–50m of wealth as the threshold for restructuring, with the biggest shift in 2028–29.
Why it matters for LIDE membersBrazilian families are rethinking holding structures after the tax changes, a direct planning topic for members and their Swiss advisers.
CHPrivate banking & wealth management
UBP becomes Taishin Bank's exclusive global private banking partner
Union Bancaire Privée, the Geneva family-owned bank with CHF 193.5bn in assets under management, signed an agreement in Taipei on 23 Oct to become Taishin Bank's exclusive global strategic private banking partner. UBP will supply investment views, product development and joint training to strengthen Taishin's asset allocation, international investment and succession advice in Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Why it matters for LIDE membersIt shows a growth model without acquisitions, partnering with local banks, that Brazilian banks and wealth managers could replicate with Swiss houses.
CHPrivate banking & wealth managementAI & Infrastructure
UBS rolls out an AI meeting assistant to client advisers across Switzerland
After a pilot that began in summer 2026, UBS has rolled out an AI tool across Switzerland that pulls data from several bank systems to prepare advisers for client meetings and adapts to topics raised during the conversation. Its client chatbot reaches 1.8 million clients and hands unresolved cases to staff; UBS says investment recommendations stay with the advisers.
Why it matters for LIDE membersIt sets a service benchmark against which Brazilian and Swiss wealth managers will be measured.
06Private Market
BRPrivate Market
Morgan Stanley sees no Brazilian IPOs in 2026 but a record year for cross-border M&A
Speaking before the runoff, Morgan Stanley Brazil's head of investment banking, Fábio Medeiros, said he expects no Brazilian IPOs in 2026 and that a Lula re-election would likely mean higher rates and only a few offerings, mostly from banks and insurers. He called 2026 a record year for cross-border M&A, led by foreign strategic buyers in infrastructure, energy and mining.
Why it matters for LIDE membersWith the exit window shut, foreign strategic buyers, including Swiss groups, may find Brazilian assets cheaper after the election sell-off.
BRPrivate Market
Allos and Kinea (Itaú) launch mall fund of up to R$1bn backed by seven shopping centres
The Kinea Allos Malls FII (KAML11) is offering up to R$1bn, with a R$600m minimum, to buy partial stakes in seven mature Allos malls at an estimated average cap rate of about 9.5% on 2025 net operating income. Allos plans to keep up to 24% of the units; 80% of the price is payable at closing and 20% in instalments over 24 to 48 months.
Why it matters for LIDE membersIt tests appetite for real-asset income at roughly 9.5% yields just as the election result reprices Brazilian rates.
CHPrivate Market
Swiss healthcare investors HBM and BB Biotech post strong results, helped by private exits
HBM Healthcare Investments earned CHF 176.7m in the six months to September (CHF 95.6m a year earlier), with private holdings adding CHF 138m through exits and financing rounds; its NAV per share rose 9.8% and the shares trade at a 21% discount to NAV. BB Biotech reported a nine-month profit of CHF 605m against CHF 106m, though Q3 profit fell to CHF 175m from CHF 448m.
Why it matters for LIDE membersListed Swiss vehicles at a discount to NAV offer liquid access to a reopening healthcare exit window.
BRPrivate Market
Kalanick's Atoms (formerly CloudKitchens), with US$1.7bn raised, expands its Brazil-led LatAm bet
Travis Kalanick's CloudKitchens, renamed Atoms and restructured as a holding company, raised US$1.7bn in a round led by a16z, with Uber joining as a shareholder. Its regional brand NovaKitchens runs 438 kitchens in Brazil, about 64% of its Latin American footprint, and plans to bring robotics-based food solutions to the region in 2027, while citing the exchange rate as a barrier.
Why it matters for LIDE membersWell-funded US growth capital still treats Brazil as its Latin American base, a counterpoint to this week's election-driven risk-off.
07Crypto & digital assets
BRCrypto & digital assetsFintech
Brazil crypto licensing: at least 12 firms have applied and about 10 are exiting, days before the 30 Oct BCB deadline
A public tracker by BitNotícias (23–24 Oct) counts at least 12 SPSAV authorisation filings: seven in the Banco Central's public database (including Transfero, Onda Finance and Wynx) and five announced by Crown, Brasil Bitcoin, OKX, UnblockPay and Bybit; Higherway's application was rejected. About 26 others, including Binance, Mercado Bitcoin, Coinbase, Foxbit, Nubank and B3, say they will file, and about 10 firms are exiting, including Revolut, NovaDAX, Bitso and Lemon. This is a media tally, not an official BCB count.
Why it matters for LIDE membersMembers holding crypto through Brazilian platforms should check that their provider files by 30 Oct, since non-filers must wind down and lose bank and Pix access from 6 Nov.
CHCrypto & digital assetsPrivate banking & wealth management
Adam Back's Blockstream opens a Lugano office and launches a bitcoin consulting arm for Swiss banks
Blockstream is opening an office in Lugano as its European business hub and launching Blockstream Consulting Services to help banks, asset managers and other institutions build bitcoin-based infrastructure such as tokenised assets and confidential settlement. Adam Back says Swiss wealth management is more open to bitcoin than retail banking in larger countries; Blockstream's Liquid Network has about 80 member firms.
Why it matters for LIDE membersThe Swiss private-banking hub is becoming a direct target for bitcoin infrastructure providers, relevant to bankers and family offices weighing digital-asset offerings.
BRCrypto & digital assets
São Paulo court orders Brasil Bitcoin managers to return domain, Pix key and deposits, and to file the BCB licence request
On 23 Oct a TJSP business-law chamber ordered the two managing partners of exchange Brasil Bitcoin (60% combined) to return its domain, Pix key and client deposits to the original company within 48 hours, under a daily fine of R$100,000 capped at R$5m. The 40% co-founder alleges the brand and payment flows were moved to a new vehicle, Brasil 8; the court also ordered the authorisation request to be filed with the Banco Central before 30 Oct.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA governance warning: a shareholder dispute at a local exchange is entangled with its licence filing and control of client funds.
BRCrypto & digital assets
Bitcoin briefly falls below US$80,000 over the weekend as liquidations top US$810 million
Bitcoin fell to about US$79,100 on Saturday 24 Oct, its lowest in over a month, before recovering to around US$80,000–80,350 on Sunday. More than US$810m of leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs, and US spot bitcoin ETFs had weekly net outflows of about US$636m ahead of the 27–28 Oct FOMC meeting.
Why it matters for LIDE membersThe sell-off continued after the 22 Oct drop; the Fed meeting is the next test for crypto allocations.
BRCrypto & digital assetsUnconfirmed report – Livecoins
Brazilian court reportedly orders Tether to freeze eight Tron wallets and repay a scam victim's USDT
Livecoins reports that a Brazilian court ordered Tether to freeze the balances of eight Tron wallets within 15 days and then return 52,000 USDT to an investor from Alagoas who lost 52,750 USDT (about R$291,000) in a pig-butchering scam, or pay the equivalent in reais, under a daily fine of R$10,000 capped at R$500,000. The report does not name the court or case number, and Tether did not comment.
Why it matters for LIDE membersBrazilian courts are testing whether they can compel a foreign stablecoin issuer to act, which bears on recovery and counterparty risk.
08AI & Infrastructure
BRAI & Infrastructure
Re-elected Lula pledges a 'Brazilian AI' and wants data centres to reserve capacity for Brazilian data
In his victory speech in São Paulo on 25 Oct, Lula said Brazil should not depend on Chinese or American AI, should use its renewable energy to attract data centres, and that operators would have to set aside part of their capacity for Brazilian data; no enforcement mechanism was given. He also promised to regulate digital platforms and tax big tech; a platform bill creating a special unit inside Cade is already in Congress.
Why it matters for LIDE membersIt signals the fourth-term direction on data localisation, platform regulation and AI sovereignty, affecting foreign investors in Brazilian digital infrastructure and cloud.
BRAI & InfrastructurePrivate Market
Redata: power sector presses Lula for the decree as Paraguay lands an Itaipu-powered AI campus
FASE, a forum of 21 power-sector associations, has asked Lula to prioritise the Redata decree (Law 15.504), as the PIS/Cofins/IPI benefits lapse on 31 Dec 2026; FASE projects data-centre load rising from about 0.3 GW in 2026 to 5.7 GW in 2030. Meanwhile the US-backed Crusoe–Araico project near Itaipu in Paraguay plans a first phase in mid-2027 on a path to 106 MW, and Scala's CEO warned that Paraguay could reach 1 GW before Brazil without quick state incentives.
Why it matters for LIDE membersThe decree's timing and the regional race for hyperscale capacity will decide where Brazil-linked data-centre and energy capital goes in 2027.
CHAI & Infrastructure
Swiss publishers demand suspension of Meta's new terms over AI access to their content
The Swiss media publishers' association VSM calls 'unacceptable' a clause in Meta's new business terms, due on 30 Oct, which it says would let Meta use publishers' website content for products including generative AI. Meta says the terms do not cover news crawling and that robots.txt settings are respected; VSM backs a motion by FDP Councillor of States Petra Gössi to protect intellectual property from AI misuse.
Why it matters for LIDE membersAn early test of how Switzerland handles AI and copyright, relevant to any member that owns content, data or brands.
10University spin-offs & innovation labs
CHUniversity spin-offs & innovation labsPrivate Market
EPFL spin-off Distalmotion secures up to USD 70m loan for its US surgical-robot push
Distalmotion, the Vaud-based maker of the DEXTER surgical robot, has signed a senior secured term loan of up to USD 70m with healthcare investor Perceptive Advisors. The funds will finance expansion into US ambulatory surgery centres, further development of DEXTER and a wider instrument portfolio.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA mature Swiss university spin-off is using venture debt rather than equity to scale, a structure relevant to family-office and private-credit investors.
BRUniversity spin-offs & innovation labsAI & Infrastructure
FAPESP opens BRL 21m call for research on open, federated digital platforms
FAPESP, with MCTI, the Ministry of Communications and CGI.br, will fund research on digital platforms built on free software and open protocols: BRL 6m in regular grants (up to BRL 200k a year) and BRL 15m for five-year thematic projects (up to BRL 5m each). Partnerships with companies are allowed; submissions run from 5 Nov to 22 Feb 2027.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA possible entry point for Swiss tech firms and universities seeking co-funded research partnerships in São Paulo.