02Macro, politics & other
BRMacro, politics & other
Copom expected to pause cuts and hold the Selic at 13.75% on 4 November
In a Reuters poll of 48 economists taken 28 October–2 November, 33 expect the Copom to hold the Selic at 13.75% at Wednesday's decision and 15 expect a 0.25 pp cut; the median sees no change until at least Q2 2027. Before the election, the Focus survey had pointed to a cut to 13.50%. Analysts cite a tight labour market (5.2% unemployment), services inflation above 6%, the weaker real and post-election fiscal uncertainty.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA pause would show the BCB putting credibility ahead of easing after Lula's re-election, which shapes the BRL, local funding costs and the appeal of Brazilian fixed income for Swiss-booked portfolios.
CHMacro, politics & other
Swiss inflation jumps to 1.5% in October, the highest in almost three years; economists bring SNB hike bets forward
The Federal Statistical Office reported consumer prices up 1.5% year on year in October (September: 1.0%) and 0.2% on the month, driven by heating oil, petrol and diesel; core inflation held at 0.5%. The figure beat consensus (1.3%) and the SNB's own Q4 forecast (1.2%). Most economists quoted by cash.ch now expect the SNB to hold at 0% in December and hike in Q1 2027, while VP Bank sees rising odds of a December move and Bloomberg Economics expects no change before late 2027.
Why it matters for LIDE membersThe end of zero rates in Switzerland would reprice Lombard loans, mortgages and CHF cash yields and move BRL/CHF for cross-border investors.
BRMacro, politics & other
Focus survey: market raises Selic, dollar and inflation forecasts after the election
The BCB Focus survey released on 3 November raised the 2026 IPCA forecast to 5.22% (from 5.19%) and 2027 to 4.76% (from 4.34%). The end-2026 Selic forecast rose to 13.50% (from 13.25%) and end-2027 to 12.50% (from 11.75%), while the end-2026 dollar forecast jumped to R$5.34 (from R$5.05). GDP growth was trimmed to 1.76% for 2026 and 1.20% for 2027; on reopening after the holiday, the spot dollar traded near R$5.49.
Why it matters for LIDE membersThe jump in 2027 inflation expectations signals de-anchoring risk in Lula's fourth term, a key input for BRL hedging and Brazil allocation decisions.
BRMacro, politics & otherUnconfirmed report – Folha de S.Paulo (Painel)
Lula reportedly in no rush to name his Finance Minister, with the choice expected in late November
According to a report credited to Folha de S.Paulo's Painel column, Lula sees naming a Finance Minister early to calm markets as a mistake; the choice would follow his trip to COP31 in Turkey and his return in late November. Names in circulation include Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin, Piauí governor Rafael Fonteles and the incumbent Dario Durigan. A full cabinet is expected in three to four weeks.
Why it matters for LIDE membersWeeks without a named economic team prolong the post-election risk premium on the BRL and Brazilian assets, which members should factor into deal and FX timing.
05Private banking & wealth management
BRPrivate banking & wealth management
Itaú reports Q3 after the close; consensus sees BRL 12.7bn net income
Itaú Unibanco publishes its Q3 2026 results after the B3 close on 3 November; the Bloomberg consensus is net income of about BRL 12.7bn (up roughly 7% year on year) and ROAE of 23.8%. Analysts at Safra, Citi, XP and Goldman expect a solid quarter with few surprises, with weak fee income and the sale of the Colombian retail business weighing on revenue. The results follow quarters at Bradesco and Santander Brasil that showed pressure on profitability and credit quality.
Why it matters for LIDE membersItaú, which also runs a private bank in Switzerland, sets the profitability benchmark for Brazilian banking and private-banking competition.
CHPrivate banking & wealth managementPrivate Market
J. Stern & Co. closes its acquisition of Geneva-based bvo capital after FINMA approval
FINMA has approved J. Stern & Co.'s takeover of Geneva asset manager bvo capital SA, completed through the group's Swiss subsidiary; terms were not disclosed. bvo capital's former CEO Cédric Coignard becomes a partner and joins the investment committee, and Geneva becomes J. Stern's second Swiss location after Zurich. J. Stern reports about EUR 2.5bn under management, roughly 20% of it belonging to the Stern family and the partners.
Why it matters for LIDE membersBoutique consolidation among Swiss independent managers continues under FINMA supervision, a route open to members thinking about buying or selling an asset manager.
CHPrivate banking & wealth management
Lombard Odier hires a UBS veteran for Swiss UHNW and family offices; Lienhardt & Partner names a CEO-designate
From 1 January 2027, Christina Stäger Ernst, previously a managing director and desk head for UHNW Switzerland Central at UBS, will lead Lombard Odier's UHNW and single-family-office business in German-speaking Switzerland. Lienhardt & Partner Privatbank Zürich has named Roman Schwarz, head of Wealth Planning at Zürcher Kantonalbank, as designated CEO and Managing Partner; he joins as deputy CEO and takes the top role on 1 January 2027.
Why it matters for LIDE membersSenior UHNW and family-office bankers are on the move, which matters to Brazilian families reviewing their Swiss banking relationships.
CHPrivate banking & wealth management
VSV at 40: Switzerland's 1,448 licensed wealth managers press for proportionate supervision
At the Swiss Association of Asset Managers' 40th-anniversary congress in Zurich, director Vivien Jain said Switzerland has 1,448 licensed wealth managers, averaging 3.3 staff, 68 clients and CHF 140m in assets, and named rising supervisory costs as their main concern. State Secretary Daniela Stoffel (SIF) said a working group on optimising financial-market regulation will report by next summer and that the SIF is preparing a capital-market analysis that includes taxation.
Why it matters for LIDE membersIndependent managers are a key channel for Brazilian wealth booked in Switzerland, and supervision costs will shape their consolidation and service models.
CHPrivate banking & wealth management
Study: one in four Swiss millionaires changed main bank in five years; UBS and cantonal banks hold 48%
An HSLU and Luzerner Kantonalbank survey of 307 people with more than CHF 1m in freely available assets found that about a quarter had switched their main investment bank in the past five years, partly because of the end of Credit Suisse. UBS (27%) and the cantonal banks (21%) lead as main bank, clients hold an average of 3.3 banking relationships and 32% hold private debt or private equity funds. Clients rank adviser expertise, trust and stability above exclusive events.
Why it matters for LIDE membersWealthy clients choose advice quality and trust over hospitality, a useful benchmark for how corridor networks position events alongside private-banking partners.
06Private Market
BRPrivate MarketPrivate banking & wealth management
Patria Q3: US$2.4bn raised and the full-year fundraising target reached a quarter early
Patria Investments (Nasdaq: PAX) raised US$2.4bn in Q3 2026, taking year-to-date fundraising to US$6.9bn. Fee-related earnings rose 7% to US$52.8m (53.7% margin) and distributable earnings were US$46.9m (US$0.30 per share). The firm declared a US$0.1625 dividend, reports US$4.8bn of fee-earning AUM still to be activated and says it is confident of meeting its 2026 guidance.
Why it matters for LIDE membersAs Latin America's leading listed alternatives manager, Patria's fundraising pace shows how much global LP appetite there is for Brazilian private markets.
BRPrivate MarketBrazil–Switzerland relations
Lula's next term has a BRL 230bn concessions pipeline, but high rates threaten rail projects
Valor Econômico reports, as summarised by XP, that the incoming Lula administration has a pipeline of about BRL 230bn in infrastructure concessions, about BRL 160bn of it in rail. Experts and companies say financing these projects at current interest rates will be difficult, especially in rail. Valor also reports that BNDES is studying use of the Export Guarantee Fund (FGE) to finance mining investment.
Why it matters for LIDE membersThe pipeline is the main source of Brazilian infrastructure deals for Swiss pension funds, infrastructure funds and family offices, with cost of capital the binding constraint.
07Crypto & digital assets
BRCrypto & digital assetsFintech
Mercado Bitcoin hit by a hot-wallet hack of about US$38–40m; deposits and withdrawals frozen, exchange pledges to cover losses
Brazil's largest local exchange confirmed unauthorised access early on 2 November: hot wallets on at least 10 blockchains were drained through plain transfers, and how the attacker obtained signing access is still unknown. MB puts the loss at about US$38m (researchers estimate about US$40m); by 3 November about US$11m had been frozen with help from Tether, Circle and Chainalysis. MB says no customer has lost funds and it will absorb the loss, but deposits, withdrawals and app access remain suspended with no reopening date.
Why it matters for LIDE membersDays before the BCB licensing regime bites, the incident puts custody controls, hot-wallet exposure and counterparty selection at the top of the agenda for anyone holding crypto through Brazilian platforms.
CHCrypto & digital assetsFintech
Zug's Safirum launches CHF-S, a whitelisted Swiss-franc stablecoin backed by BEKB and Banque Richelieu
Safirum launched CHF-S on Solana in Zurich on 3 November; each token is backed 1:1 by francs in segregated accounts at Berner Kantonalbank and Banque Richelieu, and only KYC/KYB-verified, whitelisted wallets can hold it. Only institutional minters can issue tokens, with Maverix Securities the first. Safirum, a member of the self-regulatory organisation VQF, says it is the first publicly available CHF stablecoin built within FINMA guidance 06/2024; its adviser, former SNB general counsel Hans Kuhn, called the regulatory draft under discussion cumbersome.
Why it matters for LIDE membersA live, bank-backed CHF settlement token opens a practical option for Brazil–Switzerland B2B payments and treasury, while its regulatory model is still being debated.
CHCrypto & digital assets
Swiss Blockchain Federation benchmark ranks Switzerland 6th of 15 for digital-asset infrastructure and urges faster FINMA licensing
The first SBF Global Benchmark Report, produced with Amina Bank and the law firm MME and presented in Zurich on 3 November, scores 15 financial centres on 11 criteria and places Switzerland behind the US, Singapore, the UK, Germany and Japan. It names slow implementation as the main weakness, including unclear rules for CHF stablecoins and FINMA rulings that MME says can take two to three years. Recommendations include making innovation an explicit FINMA objective and a practical framework for franc stablecoins.
Why it matters for LIDE membersBrazilian firms weighing Zug or Zurich as a digital-asset base should plan for regulatory lead times rather than assume Singapore-speed approvals.
BRCrypto & digital assets
Update: Binance publishes a zero-knowledge reserve proof for 10 tokens and says 95% of hacked assets are replenished
On 2 November Binance completed a zero-knowledge proof-of-reserves snapshot for BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC, XRP, USD1, RLUSD and ZEC, which it says lets users verify 1:1 backing. It says it has replenished about 95% of affected assets with its own funds, expected to restore more networks from 3 November and plans another snapshot on 4 November. Binance Brasil says BRL withdrawals never stopped and that it follows BCB asset-segregation rules.
Why it matters for LIDE membersVerifiable reserves are becoming the minimum test for exchange counterparties as Brazil moves to a licensed-only market.
08AI & Infrastructure
BRAI & Infrastructure
Opposition to data centres grows in Brazil as legal challenges and restrictive state bills multiply
ClimaInfo reports that federal prosecutors (MPF) and the Public Defender's Office want work halted on Omnia's TikTok-linked data centre in Pecém (CE) until an Indigenous community is consulted and an environmental impact study is done, and notes challenges to projects by Elea in Belém and Terranova in Campinas. Innova Assuntos Públicos counts at least 20 state data-centre bills in 2026, nine of them restrictive, against four in 2025.
Why it matters for LIDE membersLicensing, Indigenous-consultation and state-law risk is becoming a real timing factor for Redata-driven data-centre investments in Brazil.
BRAI & InfrastructureFintech
Brazil's new customer-service decree takes effect: AI allowed, but a human must always be reachable
Decree 13.135/2026 took effect on 2 November for federally regulated sectors (telecoms, energy, aviation, health plans) and for digital financial institutions supervised by the Central Bank. AI and automation may handle triage, routing and resolution, but consumers must be able to reach a person in real time from 8am to 8pm every day, with calls answered within 20 seconds in at least 80% of cases. Senacon enforces the rules, and recordings must be kept for at least 90 days.
Why it matters for LIDE membersIt sets an enforceable limit on AI-only customer service in Brazil for banks, fintechs, telcos and utilities, including Swiss firms serving Brazilian consumers.
CHAI & Infrastructure
Swisscom moves its AI consulting into a subsidiary, transferring 570 employees
From April 2027, Swisscom will combine AI consulting, digital transformation, software and data expertise in a subsidiary, Swisscom Digital Technology, and 570 staff will move there. Business Customers keeps the AI platforms, AI computing, cloud, cybersecurity and the core B2B business. Swisscom has given no figures on job cuts and says a social plan applies.
Why it matters for LIDE membersSwitzerland's largest telco is reorganising around AI services, a signal of where Swiss enterprise AI demand and sovereign-compute offerings are heading.
CHAI & InfrastructurePrivate Market
Former Yokoy founders launch Square8 in Zurich to deploy supervised 'AI workers' in back offices
Square8 Technologies was founded in Zurich in 2026 by Philippe Sahli and Lars Mangelsdorf, co-founders of Yokoy (sold to TravelPerk in 2025), together with René Pfitzner. It turns LLMs into named AI workers with an email address, an org-chart role, KPIs and a human manager who approves sensitive actions, operating existing tools such as Workday and Zendesk. No funding has been disclosed.
Why it matters for LIDE membersExperienced Swiss founders are betting on supervised agentic AI for finance and operations, a model directly relevant to members' back offices.